基于混合粒子群优化的多目标决策新方法

多目标优化问题中的一个关键在于合理地评判各有效解的优劣。通过引入灰色系统理论中灰色关联度的概念作为评判准则,结合粒子群优化算法进行有约束多目标规划问题的研究。提出了一种新的不可行解的保留策略,进化过程中以此策略保留适量的不可行解,有利于增强对约束边界附近可能的最优解的搜索,同时,针对粒子群优化算法的容易陷入局部最优的缺点,实现了以粒子群优化为载体的混合算法:即对全局极值邻域进一步混沌搜索寻优。仿真结果表明改进的算法对多目标决策问题是有效的。     

Optimal control of a production‐inventory system with both backorders and lost sales

We consider the optimal control of a production inventory‐system with a single product and two customer classes where items are produced one unit at a time. Upon arrival, customer orders can be fulfilled from existing inventory, if there is any, backordered, or rejected. The two classes are differentiated by their backorder and lost sales costs. At each decision epoch, we must determine whether or not to produce an item and if so, whether to use this item to increase inventory or to reduce backlog. At each decision epoch, we must also determine whether or not to satisfy demand from a particular class (should one arise), backorder it, or reject it. In doing so, we must balance inventory holding costs against the costs of backordering and lost sales. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use it to characterize the structure of the optimal policy. We show that the optimal policy can be described by three state‐dependent thresholds: a production base‐stock level and two order‐admission levels, one for each class. The production base‐stock level determines when production takes place and how to allocate items that are produced. This base‐stock level also determines when orders from the class with the lower shortage costs (Class 2) are backordered and not fulfilled from inventory. The order‐admission levels determine when orders should be rejected. We show that the threshold levels are monotonic (either nonincreasing or nondecreasing) in the backorder level of Class 2. We also characterize analytically the sensitivity of these thresholds to the various cost parameters. Using numerical results, we compare the performance of the optimal policy against several heuristics and show that those that do not allow for the possibility of both backordering and rejecting orders can perform poorly.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

Minimizing the false alarm rate in systems with transient abnormality

We consider a stochastic partially observable system that can switch between a normal state and a transient abnormal state before entering a persistent abnormal state. Only the persistent abnormal state requires alarms. The transient and persistent abnormal states may be similar in appearance, which can result in excess false alarms. We propose a partially observable Markov decision process model to minimize the false alarm rate, subject to a given upper bound on the expected alarm delay time. The cost parameter is treated as the Lagrange multiplier, which can be estimated from the bound of the alarm delay. We show that the optimal policy has a control‐limit structure on the probability of persistent abnormality, and derive closed‐form bounds for the control limit and present an algorithm to specify the Lagrange multiplier. We also study a specialized model where the transient and persistent abnormal states have the same observation distribution, in which case an intuitive “watchful‐waiting” policy is optimal. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 320–334, 2016     

军事攻防中的多属性资源分配对策模型

针对资源受限情形下的两阶段攻防资源分配问题,提出一种基于多属性决策的资源分配对策模型。防守者首先将有限的防护资源分配到不同的目标上,继而进攻者选择一种威胁组合方式对目标实施打击。基于博弈论相关知识,模型的求解结果可以使防守者最小化自身损失,使进攻者最大化进攻收益。同时,针对模型的特点,给出了一些推论和证明。通过一个示例验证了模型的合理性以及相关推论的准确性,能够为攻、防双方规划决策提供辅助支持。     

对数据后处理雷达的多参数协同相关干扰

基于DRFM转发或者重复转发的干扰信号,虽然在功率上能达到干扰要求,但是产生的虚假目标与真实目标缺乏相关性,数据后处理雷达能根据该特性实现对欺骗干扰信号的检测和抑制。针对数据后处理雷达在抑制非相关干扰信号的优越表现,根据不同特征域干扰信号的相关性要求,提出了在幅度域上具有起伏特性,时频域协同一致,方位上具有相关性的干扰信号模型,以保证对数据后处理雷达干扰的有效性。最后在与非相关干扰信号比较中,验证了该干扰方式的有效性。     

基于不确定语言多属性决策的目标威胁度排序

针对影响不同类目标威胁度的因素建立了目标威胁度指标体系,并在此基础上,利用不确定语言多属性决策模型对不同类目标威胁度进行排序。该方法不仅充分体现了不同类目标威胁度的影响因素,还充分利用了专家和决策人员的经验,能较好地反映现代战场中目标威胁度的实际情况,利于提高智能化程度;模型适应性较强,计算量小,符合军事系统实时性的特殊要求,使评估结果更具有可信性和实用性。     

基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法

分析了熵权的理论基础，给出了一种基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法。其中，采用熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定综合权重，使权重的确定更加合理。最后通过实例对该方法的可行性和实用性进行了说明。     

基于SD方法的作战指挥决策系统效能分析模型

指挥决策系统是一个非线性的复杂系统,用一般的解析方法难以对其进行效能评估。在分析指挥决策系统构成的基础上,根据指挥决策的4个要素,建立了指挥决策系统的评估指标体系;综合考虑战术和技术指标,从指挥员影响度,指挥机关影响度,指挥信息系统影响度和决策信息影响度4个方面建立了指挥决策系统效能分析模型,前两项指标可以采用层次分析法等方法确定其效能值,后两项指标利用系统动力学方法,结合实际作战的具体战术指标建模,实现了效能值的动态评估分析。     

SPH的两种并行计算方案及其在自由表面流动模拟中的应用

针对光滑粒子动力学(SPH)主要计算量是近邻粒子搜索这一特点,提出了一种基于粒子分解的SPH并行计算方案。利用该方案可以方便的将任意串行SPH代码并行计算,而且每一个时间步内的信息传递量只和粒子总数有关,而和粒子的分布无关,因而特别适合于自由表面流动等大变形问题的并行数值模拟。对一个粒子总数为40万的三维溃坝问题的模拟结果表明,此方案能达到的最大加速比约为16,这一结果可能比空间分解方案(不考虑动态负载均衡)更优。     

混合多属性决策投影算法的装甲分队目标价值评估

科学评价混合多属性目标价值是装甲分队作战决策的基础,为提高信息化装甲分队作战辅助决策水平,建立了混合多属性评估矩阵并运用投影算法完成目标价值评估与排序。实例分析表明,基于混合多属性决策投影算法可合理有效地评估多目标价值,为分队指挥员科学决策提供重要数据支持。